Mathematical modeling analysis and simulation of human papillomavirus infection and cervical cancer in Xinjiang, China

Abstract

A dynamical model of human papillomavirus (HPV) infection and secondary cervical cancer transmission with a two‐stage recovery of HPV infection and precancerous lesions is constructed based on the transmission features relating HPV infection and secondary cervical cancer in Xinjiang, China. First, the dynamical behavior of the model is investigated, including the positivity and boundedness of solutions, the calculation regarding basic reproduction number, the existence and stability of equilibrium, and the uniform persistence of the model. The theoretical results show that the basic reproduction number completely decided the dynamical properties of the model. Second, the parameters and current basic reproduction number specific to the model are fitted and estimated considering the actual data of HPV infection and secondary cervical cancer cases in Xinjiang from January 2003 to December 2019. Furthermore, the sensitivity of main parameters to the basic reproduction number is discussed by the numerical simulations. Finally, some practical control strategies are proposed to control the further spread of HPV infection and cervical cancer in the region.