Abstract
In this paper a mathematical model for the transmission dynamics of bird flu among birds and humans is presented. The model assumes that there is no migration of birds in the susceptible bird population immediately the disease starts. The model formulated is analyzed using dynamical systems theory . The analysis of the steady state and its stability show that the system will be stable if there is a bound on the growth (birth) of birds in the community (αB). This means that the disease will die out after enough time if there is a bound on the growth rate of birds. We also looked at the endemic flu state and showed that the disease will persist if there is a bound on the infection transition rate from birds to birds (βB).KEY WORDS: Mathematical model, bird – flu disease, transmission, steady state, stability
Highlights
Bird flu called avian influenza is a major contributor to mortality and morbidity through out the world [4]
According to World Health Organization respiratory infections, killed an estimated over four million people in 1999, but it is very difficult to calculate how mortality is caused by flu [1,9]
Bird flu is majorly spread by migratory birds, as they move around the world to seasonal breeding and feeding grounds, infect domestic flocks around the world
Summary
Bird flu called avian influenza is a major contributor to mortality and morbidity through out the world [4] It is a respiratory infection in humans and birds caused by an RNA virus in the family of orthomyxoviridae. The models predict exactly how far a flu outbreak will spread under different circumstances In the model they made a prediction, “if a flu outbreak were like the relatively mild 1975 Asian flu virus, it would infect 93 million Americans and cause 164,000 United States of America deaths”. The result showed that the spread of the virus will continue as long as there are infected birds and there is tendency of human infection sooner or later Their model assumed that there is a migration into the susceptible class. There is no recovery in the infected birds [9]
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Sign-in/Register to access full text options 
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
