Mathematical Decision Support Model for the Decommissioning of Nuclear Power Facilities

Abstract

The paper proposes a structure of a mathematical model for supporting decision-making on the decommissioning of nuclear power facilities. The proposed structure includes a scheme of analysing the various options for decommissioning nuclear power facilities based on a multi-criteria approach. In particular, along with the usual nuclear decommissioning variants (the green-field site restoration and the disposal of radioactive waste on site), the suggested model allows their optimal combination. The model takes into account the uncertainties in the initial data, including data determined expertly, whose uncertainty is described by fuzzy sets. The mathematical decision support model evaluates a large number of indicators of the nuclear facility to be decommissioned, reducing them to several aggregated criteria. Of those the most significant are the composite indicator of potential hazard and the aggregate financial indicator, taking into account the levels of their uncertainty. The proposed scheme allows finding of the optimal variant for decommissioning a nuclear facility that corresponds to the optimal correlation of criteria characterizing the maintenance of values of nuclear and radiation safety indicators and economic indicators of the decommissioned object of nuclear energy use.