Mathematical analysis of transmission dynamics of Acute Bee Paralysis Virus within a hive

Abstract

In this paper, a mechanistic model of Acute Bee Paralysis Virus (ABPV) transmission is designed and analyzed. The qualitative behavior of honeybee-pathogen and honeybee-pathogen-mite interactions sub-models revealed the existence of backward bifurcation. It is shown that whenever the survivability of a newly hatched egg is guaranteed, both the disease-free and endemic equilibria of the sub-models are globally asymptotically stable. Sensitivity and uncertainty analyses have shown that egg-laying, viral ingestion and deposition rates are the most influential parameters that drive ABPV infection. Suggesting that intervention strategies that focus on how to manage these rates are required for effective control. The combination of disinfection and fumigation of hives, using optimal control analysis, is shown to be the most effective strategy for controlling the spread of ABPV infection. In addition, disinfection alone is found to be the most cost-effective strategy. Finally, an extended model that incorporates mite migration and parasitism is formulated and simulated. The results have shown that mite migration weakens the colony and spacing hives to the farthest distance a forager can reach strengthen the colony. It is also shown that parasitism contributes towards colony collapse, however, fumigation strategy reduces honeybee mortality due to parasitism.