Abstract
Introduction. A large number of fatalities on the roads of the Russian Federation is a significant state problem; to reduce this indicator, various target programs are being developed at the national level. To assess the achievement of the established target programs, it is necessary to perform a mathematical analysis of certain road safety indicators, which makes it possible to establish the most accurate mathematical model describing certain interrelationships of the indicators under consideration for the subsequent forecast and assessment of the achievement of the established target indicators, which will allow assessing the effectiveness certain guidelines of state policy in the area under consideration.Methods and materials. In the research work, methods of statistical and mathematical analysis, models for determining the state of road safety at different levels - world, state and regional, depending on various parameters are used.Results. A mathematical model for assessing road safety indicators based on the analysis of transport and social risk parameters is proposed, their low relationship is determined and the possibility of using them as independent parameters for assessing the state of road safety at the national level is established.Conclusion. The absence of a close relationship between the indicator of social risk and motorization, measured in the number of cars per 1000 inhabitants (the value of the correlation coefficient is 0,422), was found, which allows one to judge the presence of other factors influencing the parameter under consideration.
Highlights
various target programs are being developed at the national level
necessary to perform a mathematical analysis of certain road safety indicators
A mathematical model for assessing road safety indicators based on the analysis of transport
Summary
Для оценки достижения установленных целевых программ необходим математический анализ определенных показателей безопасности дорожного движения, позволяющий установить наиболее точную математическую модель, описывающую определенные взаимосвязи рассматриваемых показателей для последующего прогноза и оценки достижения установленных целевых показателей, что позволит оценить эффективность определенных ориентиров государственной политики в рассматриваемой области. В научно-исследовательской работе применены методы статистического и математического анализа, модели определения состояния безопасности дорожного движения на различных уровнях – мировом, государственном и региональном, зависящих от различных параметров. Предложена математическая модель оценки показателей безопасности дорожного движения по результату анализа параметров транспортного и социального риска, определена их невысокая взаимосвязь и установлена возможность использования их как независимых параметров для оценки состояния безопасности дорожного движения на национальном уровне. Математический анализ определенных показателей безопасности дорожного движения в Российской Федерации // Вестник СибАДИ.
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