Matching supply and demand of cooling service provided by urban green and blue space

Abstract

Urban blue-green space (UBGS) has been extensively investigated for its climate regulation capability in the context of climate change. However, current efforts are limited toward the cooling effects mismatch in supply and demand of UBGS. This study adapts the framework of ecosystem supply and demand to quantify the supply-demand matching of the cooling effects of UBGS. Two indices were proposed to evaluate cooling provision and demand of UBGS: Cooling Supply Index (CSI), accounting for cooling contribution and spatial effect, and Cooling Demand Index (CDI), considering physical and social dimensions of cooling demand. Four-quadrant analysis and bivariate local indicators of spatial autocorrelation (BiLISA) analysis were employed to distinguish the supply-demand matching status: high supply with high demand, low supply with high demand, low supply with low demand, and high supply with low demand. The results show that 1) CSI and CDI yield great performance in quantifying cooling supply and demand, respectively; 2) the four-quadrant analysis and bivariate LISA analysis are complementary to each other, and can target those areas in different matching statuses for climate-sensitive planning and design; and 3) particular attention should be given to areas characterized by low supply with high demand. This study marks a crucial step toward integrating social aspects into the analysis of cooling effects provided by UBGS. It enriches the analysis framework for urban ecosystem services and provides valuable guidance for landscape planning to mitigate heat stress.