Mass casualty event scenarios and political shifts: 2020 election outcomes and the U.S. COVID-19 pandemic

Abstract

COVID-19 models indicate a mass casualty event may potentially occur in the United States. Among numerous social and economic changes, the potential to reshape the political landscape exists. The theoretical perspective of politics-administration dichotomy is used to examine the rhetoric, power, and authority of public health messages during the pandemic. This study considers political shifts using state-level data on population, historical voter turnout, and projected COVID-19 cases number coupled with national-level data on voter participation by age group and COVID-19 fatality rates. Developing a formula to calculate these data, we project the extent to which the number of voters from each party could diminish. The analysis shows the potential for significant political changes due to the disproportionate loss of older voters in key swing states in the months leading to the 2020 presidential election.