Market Risk in Project Finance: Approaches to Review and Minimisation

Abstract

Relevance. Development of an investment project is commonly associated with many risks, and one of the most significant risks is a market risk i.e. is a possible failure to achieve prices, volumes and sales projected in total compared to those planned in the business plan and financial model of a project. Modern literature pays not enough attention to many relevant and practical issues of the market risk (i.e. is a possible failure to achieve prices, volumes and sales projected) review and reduction in the project finance and investment review, as well as to issues of work with independent marketing consultants, possible areas and ways for risk reduction and quality improvement.Purpose. The previous article considered approaches to understanding significance of the market risk and measures to deal with the risk in the review of price forecasts for an investment project. This article is supposed to consider the issues of risk reduction by organising optimal work with an independent consultant on these issues.Objectives. It is supposed to consider the possibility of engaging an independent marketing consultant, the requirements to the consultant by the financing organisation or investor, to provide an example of detailed scope of work for the independent analysis, give examples of comments to the marketing report and proposed measures to adjust the analysis in the report. It is also necessary to consider approaches to the use of the financial model in order to reduce market risk effects in project financing.Methodology. Methods of analysis and synthesis, induction and deduction as well as modelling are used in the article.Results. The article considers two major issues related to the accounting for or reduction of the market risks in the development of investment projects and providing project finance: the range of questions regarding working with a marketing consultant in order to decrease market risk effects is discussed, examples of requirements to the consultant and potential scope of work as well as some possible errors examples are given; author discusses instruments for considering these risks in financial model, including increased required levels for liquidity and debt service ratios in case of high risks and uncertainties.Conclusion. The market risk is one of the key risks in the development of an investment project and project review in project finance. A set of measures is needed to reduce and account for the risk. Proper application of these and other reasonable measures should enable project initiators and sponsors to ensure their successful development and compliance with the debt service schedule to third-party lenders.