Abstract
The goal of this paper is to specify market models for credit portfolios in a top-down setting driven by time-inhomogeneous Levy processes. We provide a new framework, conditions for absence of arbitrage, explicit examples, an affine setup which includes contagion and pricing formulas for STCDOs and options on STCDOs. A calibration to iTraxx data with an extended Kalman filter shows an excellent fit over the full observation period. The calibration is done on a set of CDO tranche spreads ranging across six tranches and three maturities.
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