MARITAL ECONOMICS: RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN INFLATION AND AGE OF FIRST MARRIAGE AMONG INDONESIAN YOUTH

Abstract

Economic factors, including inflation, have long been recognized as significant determinants of marital patterns and decisions. Previous studies have shown mixed results on how economic instability and inflation affect marriage rates, with some findings indicating a deterrent effect due to increased economic uncertainty, while others show varying impacts across different regions and timeframes. However, existing literature often lacks contemporary analysis within specific geographical contexts, such as Indonesia, and does not extensively explore the compounded annual effects of inflation on marriage rates. This study addresses these gaps by examining the relationship between compounded inflation rates and the age of first marriage among Indonesian youth from 2019 to 2023. Utilizing national and subgroup data from the “Statistik Pemuda Indonesia” dataset provided by the Central Agency of Statistics (BPS), including distinctions by gender, rural vs. urban settings, and expense groups, this paper provides a nuanced analysis of how recent economic conditions influence marital decisions. The results of the Shapiro-Wilk test conducted across the dataset are mixed. Due to this inconsistency, the use of the Spearman Rank Correlation and Pearson Correlation is justified. The results reveal significant variances in how different demographic segments react to economic pressures, thereby enriching our understanding of the economic factors driving marital choices in contemporary Indonesian society. Through this analysis, the study contributes to the broader discourse on marital economics by integrating localized economic metrics with demographic behavioral patterns, offering valuable insights for policymakers and social scientists.