Abstract
A methodology has been developed to calculate the dynamic probabilistic movement and resulting stresses for marine pipelines subjected to storm waves. A directional wave spectrum is used with a Fourier series expansion to simulate short-crested waves and calculate their loads on the pipeline. The pipeline displacements resulting from these loads are solutions to the time-dependent beam-column equation which also includes the soil resistance as external loading. The statistics of the displacements for individual waves are combined with the wave statistics for a given period of time, e.g. pipeline lifetime, to generate probabilistic estimates for net pipeline movement. On the basis of displacements for specified probability levels the pipeline configuration is obtained from which pipeline stresses can be estimated using structural considerations, e.g. pipeline stiffness, end restraints, etc.
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