Marine Pilot’s Reliability Index (MPRI): Evaluation of marine pilot reliability in uncertain environments

Abstract

This paper proposes a hybrid human reliability analysis model, comprised of qualitative and quantitative approaches, to measure the pilot performance for accident prevention in ports. The first part of this research is a qualitative investigation aimed at developing marine pilot reliability indexes (MPRIs) by conducting field observation, semi-structured focus-group interviews, and accident data analysis at ports. The results from the first part aid the identification of the key players involved in pilotage operations and the main factors influencing pilot reliability. To examine the impact of the identified factors in shaping pilot reliability, the Delphi approach is used in the second part of the study. The Delphi approach allows for the development of a MPRI agreed upon by experts. In the third part, an Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) is used to rank the importance of each identified MPRI. It is followed by an empirical assessment of the reliability of a marine pilot under uncertainty using Fuzzy Evidential Reasoning (FER). Three senior marine pilots in one of the major marine ports in the Middle East region are assessed using the developed MPRI model. The results reveal the novelty of this assessment tool in offering an effective and flexible reliability assessment and diagnostic instrument for decision makers to predict the reduction of pilot reliability.