Mapping the risk of evaporated milk spoilage in the Mediterranean region based on the effect of temperature conditions on Geobacillus stearothermophilus growth

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A predictive model for the effect of storage temperature on the growth of Geobacillus stearothermophilus was applied in order to assess the risk of evaporated milk spoilage in the markets of the Mediterranean region. The growth of G. stearothermophilus in evaporated milk was evaluated during a shelf life of one year based on historical temperature profiles (hourly) covering 23 Mediterranean capitals for five years over the period 2012–2016 obtained from the Weather Underground database (http://www.wunderground.com/). In total, 115 scenarios were tested simulating the distribution and storage conditions of evaporated milk in the Mediterranean region. The highest growth of G. stearothermophilus was predicted for Marrakech, Damascus and Cairo over the period 2012–2016 with mean values of 7.2, 7.4 and 5.5 log CFU/ml, respectively, followed by Tunis, Podgorica and Tripoli with mean growth of 2.8, 2.4 and 2.3 log CFU/ml, respectively. For the rest 17 capitals the mean growth of the spoiler was <1.5 log CFU/ml. The capitals Podgorica, Cairo, Tunis and Ankara showed the highest variability in the growth during the 5 years examined with standard deviation values for growth of 2.01, 1.79, 1.77 and 1.25 log CFU/ml, respectively. The predicted extent and the variability of growth during the shelf life were used to assess the risk of spoilage which was visualised in a geographical risk map. The growth model of G. stearothermophilus was also used to evaluate adjustments of the evaporated milk expiration date which can reduce the risk of spoilage. The quantitative data provided in the present study can assist the food industry to effectively evaluate the microbiological stability of these products throughout distribution and storage at a reduced cost (by reducing sampling quality control) and assess whether and under which conditions (e.g. expiration date) will be able to export a product to a country without spoilage problems. This decision support may lead to a significant benefit for both the competitiveness of the food industry and the consumer.