Mapping Methane—The Impact of Dairy Farm Practices on Emissions Through Satellite Data and Machine Learning

Abstract

Methane emissions from dairy farms are a significant driver of climate change, yet their relationship with farm-specific practices remains poorly understood. This study employs Sentinel-5P satellite-derived methane column concentrations as a proxy to examine emission dynamics across 11 dairy farms in Eastern Canada, using data collected between January 2020 and December 2022. By integrating advanced analytics, we identified key drivers of methane concentrations, including herd genetics, feeding practices, and management strategies. Statistical tools such as Variance Inflation Factor (VIF) and Principal Component Analysis (PCA) addressed multicollinearity, stabilizing predictive models. Machine learning approaches—Random Forest and Neural Networks—revealed a strong negative correlation between methane concentrations and the Estimated Breeding Value (EBV) for protein percentage, demonstrating the potential of genetic selection for emissions mitigation. Our approach refined concentration estimates by integrating satellite data with localized atmospheric modeling, enhancing accuracy and spatial resolution. These findings highlight the transformative potential of combining satellite observations, machine learning, and farm-level characteristics to advance sustainable dairy farming. This research underscores the importance of targeted breeding programs and management strategies to optimize environmental and economic outcomes. Future work should expand datasets and apply inversion modeling for finer-scale emission quantification, advancing scalable solutions that balance productivity with ecological sustainability.