Mapping Egypt Vulnerability to Sea Level Rise Scenarios

Abstract

The human induced increase in global average temperature over the past two centuries has led to an increase in the global mean sea level. The Nile Delta is one of the three most vulnerable areas to the sea level rise threat in the world. The saltwater intrusion caused by sea level rise is expected to negatively affect agricultural activities in the Nile Delta through its detrimental effects on groundwater and soil. Given its significant contribution to Egypt’s agricultural production, the Nile Delta’s adaptation to the anticipated rise in sea level is necessary for social and economic reasons. In order to investigate and analyze such environmental problems and their impacts, the EGSLR model has been developed. The EGSLR covers the area from Alexandria to Port Said which extends to about 285 km along the Mediterranean coast. The development of the EGSLR is using the assessment of the IPCC definition of vulnerability. National and sub-national geographic and socio-economic data have been gathered for the area of study from different sources including Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM), land cover, urban areas, industrial zones, protected areas, power plants and population data. The scenarios of sea level rise are the preliminary basis for ministries, sectors and provinces to assess possible impacts on socio-economics sectors to develop and implement their respective plans for responding to and reducing potential impacts of future changes.