Abstract
This study contributes to understanding the physical and economic impacts of progressive, climate-driven aquatic salinization on the spatial distribution of mangrove species in the Indian Sundarbans, which accounts for about two-fifths of the 10,200 km2 tidal-wetland forest delta. To estimate future mangrove distribution, a five-step analysis was undertaken, using high-resolution spatial assessments. A current (2015) basemap and overlays of salinity tolerance for major mangrove species and their assemblages and projected location-specific aquatic salinity for 2050 were used to predict salinity-induced migration. The results show gain-and-loss patterns, with salt-tolerant species predominating at the expense of freshwater species. These changes are likely to reduce the flow of ecosystem services, adversely affecting the livelihood options of poor people in adjacent areas. Effective management will require establishing baseline data for monitoring system changes over time, protocols for maintaining species health, and support for mangrove regeneration and restoration. Resources should also be directed to alternative livelihoods for mangrove-dependent households. The study recommends an integrated policy approach, focused on rising salinity, changes in mangrove dynamics, and the welfare of mangrove-dependent communities.
Highlights
The mangrove ecosystems of the Sundarbans—the world’s largest remaining contiguous mangrove forest situated along coastal segments of Bangladesh (60 percent) and India (40 percent) in the Bay of Bengal—are at increasing risk from the impacts of climate-driven sea-level rise
In this 10,200 km2 tidal-wetland forest delta, as in other globally important mangrove forests, sea-level rise may even threaten the survival of mangrove species
To obtain a broader understanding of how progressive, climate-driven aquatic salinization can be expected to affect the future distribution of mangrove species in the Indian Sundarbans, a five-step method was used
Summary
The mangrove ecosystems of the Sundarbans—the world’s largest remaining contiguous mangrove forest situated along coastal segments of Bangladesh (60 percent) and India (40 percent) in the Bay of Bengal—are at increasing risk from the impacts of climate-driven sea-level rise. In this 10,200 km tidal-wetland forest delta, as in other globally important mangrove forests, sea-level rise may even threaten the survival of mangrove species. Climate-driven sea-level rise will inevitably have significant implications for the many poor people who depend on the mangrove forest for their livelihoods. Climate-driven sea-level rise will inevitably have significant implications for the many poor people who depend on the mangrove forest for their livelihoods. (Note 1)
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