Managing technical risks in PV investments: How to quantify the impact of risk mitigation measures for different PV project phases?

Abstract

AbstractProject investment has been and still is a primary financial factor in enabling sustainable growth in photovoltaic (PV) installations. When assessing the investment worthiness of a PV project, different financial stakeholders such as investors, lenders, and insurers will evaluate the impact and probability of investment risks differently depending on their investment goals. Similarly, risk mitigation measures implemented are subject to the investment perspective. For the calculation of the economic impact of technical risks during PV plant operation, a method was developed to assign a cost priority number (CPN) to each failure given in €/kWp or €/kWp per year. This CPN method was introduced in the Solar Bankability Project and can be described as a cost‐based failure mode effect analysis. The methodology has been further developed for the evaluation and effectiveness of the identified mitigation measures. Risk mitigation factors are introduced, which quantify the reduction of the economic impact of technical risks, achieved via the reduction of failure occurrence or reduction of costs for fixing the failures (ie, repair of existing component, substitution by spare component, and substitution by new component).Mitigation measures were identified along the entire value chain and assigned to various technical risks. The new CPN (CPNnew) value arises from the cost‐benefit analysis by adding the CPN after mitigation to the cost of the mitigation measures. The FIXING costs for selected failures were calculated when applying combinations of 8 selected mitigation measures. The aim of this work is to create a framework of well‐defined mitigation measures, which have an impact on the global CPN (given as sum of CPNs of all technical risks). The cost‐benefit analysis can then include the combination of various mitigation measures and derive the best strategy depending on market segment and PV plant typology. In addition to this, it is important to assess in the CPN analysis who will bear the cost and the risk to derive considerations not only on the overall economic impact of the technical risks, but also on cost and risk ownership.