Management decision-making algorithm development for planning activities that reduce the production risk level

Abstract

Purpose: Algorithm development for a measures phased expert assessment to reduce production risk at an industrial enterprise to adapt the expert method to the conditions for specific problem solving. Design/methodology/approach: To develop an algorithm for making management decisions, a step-by-step solution process was used. If the problem is solved under conditions of complete or partial uncertainty, an expert method of estimation was applied. In the mathematical model of management decision-making used criterion approach. At the same time, the methods of Sevij, Wald, and Hurwitz are considered to determine the criterion for choosing management decisions. Findings: A phased expert assessment of measures that reduce production risk at an industrial enterprise with the introduction of weighting factors in specified criteria is proposed. The expediency of applying the method of expert assessments and the Hurwitz criterion when planning measures to reduce industrial injuries is justified, since this approach links the preventive measures in the field of labour protection with the results of risk assessment and reduces subjectivity in making management decisions. Research limitations/implications: The proposed algorithm for expert assessment of measures to reduce production risk is universal for industrial enterprises. Practical implications: An algorithm has been developed to substantiate managerial decisions to reduce the production risks of the occurrence of traumatic events when planning preventive measures, which involves applying criteria for selecting measures based on the method of expert assessments and applying the Gurwitz criterion. Originality/value: Developed a consistent model of industrial risk management, which is based on a component method of assessing the risk of traumatic events and a mathematical model of management decisions. This model differs from the existing ones, taking into account all available risk-relevant information of the enterprise, stimulates preventive activity, and allows establishing the dependence of the level of industrial risk on the validity of measures on occupational safety and reducing the influence of the subjective component of expert judgments.