Making Sense of the Trump Tariff: Evidence from the Exclusion Request

Abstract

During the Trump administration, the United States invoked Section 301 of the Trade Act and imposed significant tariffs on Chinese imports. As a result, a large portion of Chinese goods were subject to additional tariffs. Concurrently, the U.S. administration introduced a trade remedy system called exclusion requests to minimize the damage inflicted on American companies that import goods from China. In this paper, we analyze the exclusion requests to shed light on the impact of the 301 tariffs. A thorough analysis on the exclusion requests would provide better understanding of the impact of Section 301 tariffs and Trump trade policy. The analysis revealed that when an exclusion request was made for products falling under HTS 84 or 85 that are also closely associated with “Made in China 2025”, the likelihood of approval significantly decreased.