Abstract
This essay examines the international trade policies of Joseph Biden and Donald Trump, the two presumed candidates for President of the United States in 2024. I first analyse the trade law revolution effected by the Trump presidency, 2017–2021. During these years the Trump administration adopted a protectionist policy rooted in nationalism and populism. As a direct result of Trump administration trade policy there occurred: (1) a significant retreat from globalization; (2) paralysis of the World Trade Organization (WTO); (3) a revival of US unilateralism in trade policy; and (4) the US-China trade war. When Joseph Biden became president in 2021, he did not reverse the Trump trade policies. Declaring his favour of a ‘worker-oriented’ trade policy, the Biden administration defended Trump’s tariff policies while continuing his hostility to both new free trade agreements and the multilateral trading system. Biden’s distinctive addition to Trump’s trade policy is a protectionist industrial policy featuring subsidies and a ‘buy American’ mandate. Despite these similarities, Trump and Biden propose very different international trade policies for 2025 and beyond. Trump intends to adopt across the board protectionist tariffs of at least 10% on all imports and tariffs of at least 60% on all Chinese imports. The former tariffs will provoke numerous tit-for-tat trade wars; the latter tariffs will economically ‘decouple’ China and the United States. Both policies will raise prices and slow global economic growth. On the other hand, Biden eschews new tariffs. American policy will be rooted in industrial subsidies and ‘buy American’ protectionism. Critics of both Trump and Biden propose a ‘third way’ set of international trade policies that avoid protectionism. This ‘third way’ would feature new free trade agreements with Asian- Pacific, European, and Western Hemisphere nations, a revival of multilateralism and the WTO, and a more constructive trade relationship with China.
Published Version
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