Abstract
Rainfed agriculture is becoming increasingly vulnerable to climate change. This situation is expected to worsen under most future climate projections, which might increase the risks linked to food security and economies which depend on it. Providing insights about the potential responses of rainfed crops to climate change will helps on designing future adaptation strategies. In this study, large amount of data and the agro-hydrological model SWAT have been used to investigate future climate change impacts on rainfed wheat and sunflower crops in a semiarid watershed in Morocco (R’dom watershed). Downscaled CORDEX climate projections were used in generating future plants growth simulation for R’dom watershed in the 2031 to 2050 horizon under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs): 4.5 and 8.5. The main results of climate change scenarios highlighted that R’dom watershed will undergo significant decrease in water resources availability with more impact under the scenario RCP 8.5. Water productivities of both studied crops could be lower by up to -21% in comparison with baseline situation. Different sustainable management strategies have been simulated using SWAT model under climate change context. The adopted approach succeeded in building up sustainable management strategies toward secured food security in the future.
Highlights
The projectedimpacts of climate change on agricultural productivity are an important concern for decision makers, investors and population
Rainfed agriculture in Morocco is vulnerable to the uneven spatiotemporal distribution of rainfall, and is expected to be more vulnerable to the projected climate change especially in arid and semi-arid areas; this problematic will inevitably put the national economy at risks [4]
Results showed that Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model succeeded in replicating responses of both hydrology processes and crops development occurring in the study area; both processes will undergo significant effects of climate under both scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5)
Summary
The projectedimpacts of climate change on agricultural productivity are an important concern for decision makers, investors and population. Global farming systems are supposed to support both current and future growing demand for food worldwide; increasing productivity, especially for the mid and long term, should be led through the adaptation of agricultural systems to projected climate change [1]. Rainfed agriculture was always playing crucial role in food security and social integrity for many populations around the world. This farming mode is representing around eighty per cent of the global agricultural lands, and is characterized by low yield levels and high vulnerability to climate effects [3]. Rainfed agriculture in Morocco is vulnerable to the uneven spatiotemporal distribution of rainfall, and is expected to be more vulnerable to the projected climate change especially in arid and semi-arid areas; this problematic will inevitably put the national economy at risks [4]
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