Major Issues in Simulating Some Arctic Snowpack Properties Using Current Detailed Snow Physics Models: Consequences for the Thermal Regime and Water Budget of Permafrost

Abstract

AbstractAccurately simulating the physical properties of Arctic snowpacks is essential for modeling the surface energy budget and the permafrost thermal regime. We show that the detailed snow physics models Crocus and SNOWPACK cannot simulate critical snow physical variables. Both models simulate basal layers with high density and high thermal conductivity, and top layers with low values for both variables, while field measurements yield opposite results. We explore the impact of an inverted snow stratigraphy on the permafrost thermal regime at a high Arctic site using a simplified heat transfer model and idealized snowpacks with three layers. One snowpack has a typical Arctic stratification with a low‐density insulating basal layer, while the other (called Alpine‐type snowpack) has a dense conducting basal layer. Snowpack stratification impacts simulated ground temperatures at 5 cm depth by less than 0.3 °C. Heat conduction through layered snowpacks is therefore determined by thermal insulance rather than by stratification. Ground dehydration caused by upward water vapor diffusion is 4 times greater under Arctic stratification, leading to a larger latent heat loss, but also to a lower soil thermal conductivity caused by ice loss, so that the overall effect of dehydration on ground temperature is uncertain. Snowpack stratification is found to affect snow surface temperature by up to 4 °C. Lastly, different snow metamorphism rates lead to a lower Alpine snowpack albedo, contributing to a warmer ground. Quantifying all these effects is needed for adequately simulating permafrost temperature. This requires the development of a snow and soil model that describes water vapor fluxes.