Maize, wheat and rice production potential changes in China under the background of climate change

Abstract

China, as one of the largest food consumers in the world, is currently experiencing obvious impacts of climate change. Exploring the impact of climate change on the production potential of maize, wheat, and rice in China is of great significance in adapting to climate change and safeguarding global food security. In this study the Global Agro-Ecological Zone (GAEZ) model and the Extreme-Point Symmetric Mode Decomposition (ESMD) model were used to explore the trends in production potential of China's three major crops in the context of climate change from 1960 to 2010. There was a quasi-3-year and quasi-5-year cycle in changes in maize, wheat, and rice production potential due to climate change in China. Climate change increased maize and rice production potential and reduced wheat production potential. The increase in minimum temperature was the main reason for the increased maize and rice production potential. Reduced wheat production potential was mainly caused by increased maximum temperature. Decreases in precipitation had a substantial negative impact on the production potential of all three crops. These results suggest that priority should be given to adjusting the structure of agricultural cultivation and appropriately expanding the planting area of maize and rice to adapt to climate change. Accelerating the construction of agricultural infrastructure to reduce the negative impact of declining precipitation and increasing daytime temperature on agriculture is also a high priority in order to safeguard food security.