Macroeconomics of the Great Influenza Pandemic, 1918–1920

Abstract

Data for 48 countries during the Great Influenza Pandemic imply flu-related deaths in 1918–1920 of 40 million, 2.1 percent of world population, implying 160 million deaths when applied to current population. Regressions with annual information on flu deaths 1918–1920 and war deaths during WWI imply flu-generated economic declines for GDP and consumption in the typical country of 6 and 8 percent, respectively. Higher flu death rates also decreased realized real returns on stocks and, especially, on short-term government bills.