Abstract
The potential impacts on gross domestic product, employment, and carbon emissions of implementing a circular economy have been modelled at the national and multiregional levels using multiple scenarios. However, there is still no consensus on the magnitude of the impacts of a transition to a circular economy and on whether it will generate a ‘win-win-win’ situation in terms of macroeconomic, social and environmental benefits. In this paper, we review more than 300 circular economy scenarios in the time frame from 2020 to 2050. We classify each scenario according to the degree of intervention (i.e. ambitious or moderate), and perform a meta-analysis of the changes in gross domestic product, job creation, and CO2 emissions generated by each circular economy scenario compared with a business-as-usual scenario. Among other results, we find that in 2030 the implementation of ambitious circular economy scenarios could generate a ‘win-win-win’ situation with marginal or incremental changes in gross domestic product (median (mdn) = 2.0%; interquartile range (IQR) = [0.4–4.6]%) and employment (mdn = 1.6%; IQR = [0.9–2.0]%), while reducing CO2 emissions in a more substantial way (mdn = −24.6%; IQR = -[34.0–8.2]%). Furthermore, we discuss the modelling features (e.g. resource taxes, technology changes, and consumption patterns) suggested in the literature which yield the greatest changes in gross domestic product, job creation, and CO2 emissions. The outcomes of this paper are relevant to the scientific community and policy makers for understanding the magnitude of the macroeconomic, social and environmental impacts of circular economy scenarios.
Highlights
Society currently faces the challenges of satisfying human needs and preserving biological diversity and resources as well as tackling climate change (de Coninck et al, 2018)
We focus on circular economy scenarios (CESs) that contain numerical values of gross domestic product (GDP), job creation and CO2 emissions compared with a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario in the time frame from 2020 to 2050
We assess the macroeconomic, social and environmental impacts of a circularity transition reported by the selected literature, using as metrics changes in GDP, job creation, and CO2 emissions
Summary
Society currently faces the challenges of satisfying human needs and preserving biological diversity and resources as well as tackling climate change (de Coninck et al, 2018). These aspects have been considered in the sustainability field, which integrates economic, social and environmental dimensions (Bonan and Doney, 2018; Valdivia et al, 2013). The macrolevel perspective is essential for identifying which policy measures can be implemented to promote a cost-effective circularity transition (Geng et al, 2012a; McDowall et al, 2017). Due to the dearth of literature on the macro-level implications of a transition to a circular economy, our study is focused on the macro-level perspective of circularity
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