Abstract
The problem of ensuring the country's energy security becomes especially acute in the context of international sanctions and the decline in the country's investment appeal. Low investment activity entails negative consequences for the future development of the economy and its industries. Insufficient funding of the national energy sector could lead to a slowdown in the rate of commissioning of new generating capacity and the emergence of a shortage of electricity in the long term, and could pose a serious threat to the country's energy security. In this article, the issue of research of macroeconomic consequences of materialization of certain strategic threats to energy security is considered as an important independent task integral to making projections. To solve it, we propose to use an original optimization economic and mathematical model that describes non-stationary paths of economic development with time-varying technological coefficients of the "input-output" matrix. We have obtained the following main results in the course of the study: we have determined the mechanism of the influence of investment shortage on the energy security of the country; we have made a projection of the macroeconomic damage from the consequences of the investment shortage in the economy and the energy sector of the country for one of the scenarios of socio-economic development of the Russian Federation for the period 2025-2040; we have analyzed the consequences of the reduction in electricity supply to consumers due to the lack of investment in the electric power industry. The study performed attests to the complexity and necessity of such assessments in order to improve the stability and continuity of energy supply to consumers in the long term.
Published Version
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