Macro and micro contexts of dependency rates: An illustration with peruvian data

Abstract

This research contributes to the academic dialogue about the socioeconomic significance of rapid population growth by examining changes in age composition and household structure during a transitional period of demographic change. Two propositions relating changes in the size and age composition of households to the demographic transition are formulated and tested using Peruvian census and survey data. Results show a systematic pattern of change wherein the average annual percent increase in the number of households offsets the rate of population growth when the disequilibrium between mortality and fertility rates is greatest. The translation of aggregate increase into households is mediated by shifts in the distribution of households by size. It is inappropriate to conclude that larger families necessarily have higher dependency burdens or that they are worse off in an economic sense compared to smaller households because increments in size are not automatically translated into equivalent increases in age or economic dependency. In part, this is due to the influence of extension patterns on the age and labor force composition of households. Policy implications and a research agenda are discussed in the concluding section.