Machine Learning Simulation of Land Cover Impact on Surface Urban Heat Island Surrounding Park Areas

Dakota Mccarty,Jaekyung Lee,Hyun Woo Kim

doi:10.3390/su132212678

Abstract

The urban heat island effect has been studied extensively by many researchers around the world with the process of urbanization coming about as one of the major culprits of the increasing urban land surface temperatures. Over the past 20 years, the city of Dallas, Texas, has consistently been one of the fastest growing cities in the United States and has faced rapid urbanization and great amounts of urban sprawl, leading to an increase in built-up surface area. In this study, we utilize Landsat 8 satellite images, Geographic Information System (GIS) technologies, land use/land cover (LULC) data, and a state-of-the-art methodology combining machine learning algorithms (eXtreme Gradient Boosted models, or XGBoost) and a modern game theoretic-based approach (Shapley Additive exPlanation, or SHAP values) to investigate how different land use/land cover classifications impact the land surface temperature and park cooling effects in the city of Dallas. We conclude that green spaces, residential, and commercial/office spaces have the largest impacts on Land Surface Temperatures (LST) as well as the Park’s Cooling Intensity (PCI). Additionally, we have found that the extent and direction of influence of these categories depends heavily on the surrounding area. By using SHAP values we can describe these interactions in greater detail than previous studies. These results will provide an important reference for future urban and park placement planning to minimize the urban heat island effect, especially in sprawling cities.

Highlights

Green spaces and landscapes, both natural and man-made, provide diverse ecological benefits, such as surface runoff mitigation [1,2], air quality improvement [3], biodiversity increment [4], and heat wave reduction [5] to urban areas
To better understand which land use/land cover classifications had the greatest impact on Land Surface Temperatures (LST) and Park Cooling Intensity (PCI), we used SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) values
While previous studies have analyzed the impacts of various land use/land cover (LULC) categories on LST

Summary

Introduction

Both natural and man-made, provide diverse ecological benefits, such as surface runoff mitigation [1,2], air quality improvement [3], biodiversity increment [4], and heat wave reduction [5] to urban areas. There comes with it a change to the urban land cover, primarily via the action of replacing the natural vegetation cover with built-up areas, which can come in many forms but generally are seen as an increase in commercial, residential, and industrial zoning [10,11,12,13] This process leads to changes in the physical properties of the land, which in turn leads to an increase in land surface temperature. As the materials making up the surface of the environment change, so do the refraction rates, heat capacity, water retention, and multiple other physical factors that in turn increase land surface temperatures (LST) in the newly developed areas [14] With this increase in temperatures in the urbanizing areas disproportionately from the areas outside of the city, there arises the problems

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