Machine learning models for predicting hospitalization and mortality risks of COVID-19 patients

Abstract

Even though the World Health Organization declared the end of the pandemic, COVID-19 is still considered an endemic disease, affecting many people worldwide. As a result, hospitalization rates can continue to strain healthcare systems, particularly in low and middle-income countries. Thus, this article presents two predictive Machine Learning (ML) models to identify COVID-19 patients more likely to be hospitalized or face a higher mortality risk, aiming to assist physicians and healthcare administrators in making informed decisions. Previous research primarily focused on using expensive input data, such as clinical examinations and images, to implement ML models. In contrast, we implemented the models using information on patients’ demographics, vaccination history, symptoms, and underlying health conditions. We trained the ML algorithms using data from the OpenDataSus database, focusing on patients undergoing hospital treatment in São Paulo, Brazil. Our study tested 14 different ML algorithms to determine their effectiveness: gradient boosting, light gradient boosting machine, logistic regression, linear discriminant analysis, ridge, AdaBoost, random forest, support vector machine, k-nearest neighbor, extra tree, decision tree, naive Bayes, quadratic discriminant analysis, and dummy. The results showed that the gradient-boosting model outperformed the others, achieving an accuracy rate of 83% and an Area Under the Curve (AUC) of 0.89 for predicting mortality risk. Moreover, the model achieved an accuracy rate of 71% and an AUC of 0.75 for predicting hospitalization risk. Our analysis evidence that including information on the number of vaccine doses can enhance the prediction results for hospitalization and mortality of patients. Based on these significant findings, we have developed a web application to assist healthcare professionals in identifying patients at a higher risk of severe outcomes from COVID-19.