Machine learning based on alcohol drinking-gut microbiota-liver axis in predicting the occurrence of early-stage hepatocellular carcinoma

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BackgroundAlcohol drinking and gut microbiota are related to hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), but the specific relationship between them remains unclear.AimsWe aimed to establish the alcohol drinking-gut microbiota-liver axis and develop machine learning (ML) models in predicting the occurrence of early-stage HCC.MethodsTwo hundred sixty-nine patients with early-stage HCC and 278 controls were recruited. Alcohol drinking-gut microbiota-liver axis was established through the mediation/moderation effect analyses. Eight ML algorithms including Classification and Regression Tree (CART), Gradient Boosting Machine (GBM), K-Nearest Neighbor (KNN), Logistic Regression (LR), Neural Network (NN), Random Forest (RF), Support Vector Machine (SVM), and eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) were applied.ResultsA total of 160 pairs of individuals were included for analyses. The mediation effects of Genus_Catenibacterium (P = 0.024), Genus_Tyzzerella_4 (P < 0.001), and Species_Tyzzerella_4 (P = 0.020) were discovered. The moderation effects of Family_Enterococcaceae (OR = 0.741, 95%CI:0.160–0.760, P = 0.017), Family_Leuconostocaceae (OR = 0.793, 95%CI:0.486–3.593, P = 0.010), Genus_Enterococcus (OR = 0.744, 95%CI:0.161–0.753, P = 0.017), Genus_Erysipelatoclostridium (OR = 0.693, 95%CI:0.062–0.672, P = 0.032), Genus_Lactobacillus (OR = 0.655, 95%CI:0.098–0.749, P = 0.011), Species_Enterococcus_faecium (OR = 0.692, 95%CI:0.061–0.673, P = 0.013), and Species_Lactobacillus (OR = 0.653, 95%CI:0.086–0.765, P = 0.014) were uncovered. The predictive power of eight ML models was satisfactory (AUCs:0.855–0.932). The XGBoost model had the best predictive ability (AUC = 0.932).ConclusionsML models based on the alcohol drinking-gut microbiota-liver axis are valuable in predicting the occurrence of early-stage HCC.Graphical