Machine learning-based method for forecasting water levels in irrigation and drainage systems

Abstract

This study presents possible applications of machine learning (ML) methods for estimating water levels without a throughout understanding of hydrological processes and complex databases of irrigation systems. The Bac-Hung-Hai catchment, the biggest irrigation and drainage area in Vietnam, is selected as a case study due to the large database on this case consisting of 3348 samples drawn over a 21-year monitoring period. The state-of-the-art Gradient tree boosting (GTB)-based model was developed and is compared with eight other common ML methods. The proposed GTB-based model consistently showed the best performance, with the lowest value of mean-squares-error and the greatest values for R 2 and adjusted R 2 in all case studies. Moreover, over 91% of the total samples had an error rate of below 10% between the predicted and the observed values. The results suggested that the GTB model can predict water level with high accuracy, thus helping researchers and policy-makers devise proactive strategies for hydraulic regulation and sustainable water management. • An efficient method based on GTB for forecasting the water levels at culverts in irrigation systems. • A real case study of the Bac-Hung-Hai irrigation system in Vietnam. • 21-year datasets observed from 2000 to 2020 of water levels. • Compared results using different machine learning models.