Machine learning-based diagnosis in wave power plants for cost reduction using real measured experimental data: Mutriku Wave Power Plant

Abstract

In comparison to wind farms, the relative scarcity of actual operational data from wave power plants has contributed to a significant research gap in the areas of wave farm forecasting and cost reduction. In this context, this manuscript presents a new Machine Learning-based Power Take-Off (PTO) diagnosis for wave energy generation farms which has the potential to serve as an extensive reference for other wave energy farms and offer substantial benefits to both investors and policymakers involved in the advancement of the emerging wave technologies. The suggested method has been employed at the Mutriku Wave Power Plant (WWP) to facilitate the implementation of predictive maintenance strategies and reduce the Levelized Cost of Energy (LCoE). Hence, the research study considers two main extraction methods, namely, Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and Linear Discriminant Analysis (LDA), used to select the most relevant features for OWC diagnosis. In addition, two classification methods have been considered: Support Vector Machine (SVM) and Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) Artificial Neural Network (ANN). The obtained data show that, although both methods allow to achieve an effective performance with an excellent degree of accuracy, the ANN-based method presents better results with 98% accuracy against 81% for the SVM when using PCA extraction method. Then, the developed classification-based OWC diagnosis has been used for the development of a predictive maintenance strategy at the Mutriku WPP, analyzing its impact on the economic indicators. The results indicate that, using the proposed predictive maintenance strategy, the OpEx may be decreased down to 17%, downtime may be decreased down to 55% and plant availability may be better up to 95%, leading to a 5% LCoE reduction.