Machine learned clusters explain heterogeneity in outcomes from map-guided ablation of Atrial Fibrillation results from the large PROspective STanford AF Registry (ProSTAR)

Abstract

Abstract Background Several mapping systems are being introduced to guide atrial fibrillation (AF) ablation to patient-specific regions of interest. However, results have been extremely heterogeneous between studies, ranging from very poor to very promising. It is unknown if this reflects specific patient characteristics or procedural factors because most prior series were middle sized (N∼30–100 patients). Purpose To study 1 year and 3 year very long-term outcomes from map guided AF-driver ablation in a large patient registry with multiple operators, to identify clinical and procedural features influencing outcomes. In real-world AF patients with diverse comorbidities, we applied a consistent patient-tailored AF mapping and ablation strategy, monitored outcomes carefully and applied statistical and unsupervised machine learning approaches to identify features of success and failure. Method We studied 632 consecutive patients (65±10 y, 178 F) undergoing ablation for drug-refractory AF. 59.7% had persistent AF, and 29.9% had prior unsuccessful ablation (median 1 procedure). All patients underwent pulmonary vein isolation (PVI), followed by ablation of AF regions of interest mapped from 64 pole baskets (RhythmView, Abbott, IL), by 11 operators. Patients were followed using ambulatory ECG monitors quarterly for one year, and at the time of symptoms for 3 years. Results Fig. 1A shows overall freedom from AF at 1-year of 77.5% (95% CI: 74.2%, 80.9%) and at 3 years of 55.5% (95% CI: 51.2%, 60.1%). Freedom from AF/AT at 1-year was 70.1% (95% CI: 66.5%, 73.8%), and at 3 years was 48.6% (95% CI: 44.3%, 53.3%). Success was higher in patients with procedural termination, first ablation versus prior unsuccessful procedures, for paroxysmal AF than non-paroxysmal AF (1 year: AT/AF freedom 74.9% versus 66.7%, p=0.006), and smaller left atrium. Three clusters (Fig 1B) were identified comprising CHA2DS2VASc score, enlarged LA, prior failed case, presenting rhythm and termination during the procedure (Table 2). At 1 year, freedom from AT/AF was 77.8% (95% CI: 72.2%, 82.1%) for cluster 3 and 56.2% (95% CI: 48.3%, 65.4%) for cluster 1 (Fig. 1B). Conclusion In our large registry of N=632 patients undergoing AF-map guided ablations, machine learned clusters identified cohorts with success of 56.2 to 77.8% at 1 year. Future studies should identify if lower success represents technical challenges, such as difficulties in mapping very large atria, or more difficult to treat mechanisms. These results may inform patient inclusion and ablation strategy in upcoming AF treatment trials. Funding Acknowledgement Type of funding sources: Public grant(s) – National budget only. Main funding source(s): National budget only - NIH, R01 HL149134, R01HL83359