Lunar phase as a dynamic landscape of fear factor affecting elephant crop raiding potential

Abstract

Risk assessment relies on cost–benefit analysis by prey species in relation to predator behavior. The lunar cycle can have strong influences on the way that predator and prey species behave in their environment as light levels can influence activity patterns. By examining how lunar phase influences behavior, we may be able to better predict instances of human–wildlife conflict. As part of the Elephants and Sustainable Agriculture in Kenya project, over 5 years of study have been dedicated to mitigating human–elephant conflict in the Kasigau Wildlife Corridor in southern Kenya, focusing on the construction of deterrent fences and the collection of environmental data in and bordering the Rukinga Wildlife Sanctuary. Elephant presence around crop fields was hypothesized to have a negative relationship with lunar light levels because of an increase in perceived risk from typically greater human activity with moonlight, and a positive relationship with increased darkness during the waning moon phases. The lunar phase data were compared to elephant presence within 12 m of experimental crop fields along the boundary of their wild habitat and human agricultural land to provide insight for potential crop raiding events. Elephants were present significantly less during the full and gibbous moon phases when compared to the new moon phase, and significantly more during the new and waning moon phases. Our findings are being shared with the farmers living in the KWC and may be useful to others living in high HEC areas by providing a form of early warning system that also may have broader applications in the mitigation of other human–wildlife interactions.