Abstract
The goal of this study was to apply the Mann-Kendall test to the rainfall data of eight macroregions of the Ceara State aiming to determine climate trends in their time series. To this end were used rainfall data obtained by the FUNCEME for the period 1974-2011. The Mann-Kendall test was applied to verify trends in rainfall series, and the Students’s t-test to check significant differences in the trend values. Downward trends in annual rainfall were found for the metropolitan region of Fortaleza, Sertao dos Inhamuns and Sertao Central, areas that also presented smaller green areas and/or fewer vegetated areas. Upward trends in rainfall were observed on the West Coast, Sobral/Ibiapaba, Baturite, East Coast/ Jaguaribe and Cariri/South Central.
Highlights
A major concern of researchers has increased recently focusing the analysis of climate variability taking place on the planet, especially regarding a possible increase in intense rainfall events (Bertoni & Tucci, 1993).Studies of this nature have proven to be very important and useful in the northeast region, since the benefits brought by results can be applied in the daily living of the population.There are different techniques being used to diagnose trends and/or variations in time series of environmental data
The results indicated increasing trends in time series of air temperature, significant by the Mann-Kendall test for scenarios of 2050 and 2100
The Mann-Kendall test indicated a downward trend for three macroregions of the Ceará State
Summary
A major concern of researchers has increased recently focusing the analysis of climate variability taking place on the planet, especially regarding a possible increase in intense rainfall events (Bertoni & Tucci, 1993).Studies of this nature have proven to be very important and useful in the northeast region, since the benefits brought by results can be applied in the daily living of the population.There are different techniques being used to diagnose trends and/or variations in time series of environmental data. A major concern of researchers has increased recently focusing the analysis of climate variability taking place on the planet, especially regarding a possible increase in intense rainfall events (Bertoni & Tucci, 1993). Studies of this nature have proven to be very important and useful in the northeast region, since the benefits brought by results can be applied in the daily living of the population. There are different techniques being used to diagnose trends and/or variations in time series of environmental data. It is noteworthy to remember that trend within a time series is a continuous and systematic change in any. Technology parameter of a given sample, excluding periodical or almost periodic changes (Yevjevich, 1972)
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