Analysis of seasonal and annual rainfall trends in the northern region of Bangladesh

Abstract

The aim of the present study was to investigate 50 years (1964–2013) of seasonal and annual rainfall trends and their fluctuation over time in northern Bangladesh. After testing the autocorrelation, non-parametric Mann–Kendall test along with Sen Slope estimator was used to examine rainfall trends and their magnitudes. The sequential Mann–Kendall test was used to identify any fluctuations in the trends over time and to detect the possible points of change in the rainfall series. We found that pre-monsoon and post-monsoon rainfall is increasing in most of the rainfall stations. The only decrement in pre-monsoon rainfall was found for Ishurdi (1.28mm/year). However, the sequential Mann–Kendall test detected decreasing pre-monsoon rainfall trend after early the 1990s. Monsoon rainfall showed a decreasing trend in the majority of the area studied. The maximum decrement in monsoon rainfall was found for Sylhet station (8.10mm/year) and minimum in Mymensingh (1.53mm/year). An upward monsoon rainfall trend was found for Rangpur (2.02mm/year). Annual rainfall followed the monsoon rainfall trend. However, all of the positive and negative trends were found statistically non-significant at 95% confidence limit with the only exception for monsoon and annual rainfall at Rajshahi station. Rajshahi station was the only region where the monsoon and annual rainfall has a significant negative trend at 95% confidence limit. The sequential Mann–Kendall test detected several non-significant points of change for seasonal and annual rainfall at most of the stations. Periodic fluctuations were also detected. We observed that there were decreasing seasonal rainfall trend after early the 1990s for the majority of the stations.