Low-carbon scenarios for the power generation sector in Korea

Abstract

According to the Paris Agreement, the global community agreed that the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere would be stabilized by the end of this century within the temperature increase of 2 °C. Many countries are phasing-out coal-fired power plants domestically and internationally in order to mitigate CO2 emissions. In this paper, CO2 emission projections for the power sector in Korea under different scenarios through 2029 are examined. Since the power generation sector in Korea is one of the main sources of CO2 emissions, low-carbon options in this sector with their implications for changing the energy mix and incremental costs are compared with the official basic plan in this sector. To project the power generations and the associated CO2 emissions under different scenarios, the Asia Integrated Model of the computable general equilibrium approach for Korea is used. The simulation results tell us that the CO2 emission reduction for the power sector in Korea is feasible with the incremental costs of power generation between −25.7 and 452.4 USD per ton of CO2 in 2029, depending on the energy mix under different scenarios. The policy implication is clear that the low-carbon pathways for the power sector are feasible with the social consensus that the extra burden of CO2 reduction cost will be considered.