Abstract
Long-run fiscal levels, or synonymously, fiscal targets, are usually assumed to be known to households inside the economy. This paper investigates the effects of unknown fiscal targets in an incomplete information, anticipated utility (IIAU) environment. Slowly increasing transfer payments cause households to suspect time-varying targets, and misperceptions impact both their expectation formation and decision making. Perceived targets enter the IIAU model as nonlinear state variables, introducing state-dependent fiscal multipliers. The short-run stimulus effects of Trump’s 2017 and Reagan’s 1981 Tax Cuts are comparable and modest. The long-run effects of Trump’s Tax Cuts worse off if transfers continue to increase.
Published Version
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