Low Fertility in Industrial Countries: Causes, Consequences, Policies

Abstract

In most industrial countries, fertility now stands at levels below those required for population replacement. The increased availability and effectiveness of contraception have made it possible for women to avert unwanted births. Moreover, concerns with the quality of family life, improved child survival, growing proportions of women in the labor force, and the lack of reliance on children for old-age security have combined to reduce the number of children women desire. Marriage rates are decreasing, and marriage takes place at a later age or is often disrupted by divorce--factors that constrain the number of children born. As a result of this prolonged fertility decline in industrial countries, the proportions of children and young adults are decreasing while that of the elderly is growing. In addition, the proportion of the world population living in developed countries has fallen from 35% in the early 20th century to 24% and is expected to decline further to 17% between 2000-25. These trends will have serious economic, social, and political implications. In particular, growing numbers of old people will create a need for expanded social services and the costs of social security will be born by a shrinking labor force. Large-scale emigration from developing countries, where the young adult population will continue to increase, can be expected and is a potential source of political conflicts in the industrial countries of destination. France, the USSR, and several Eastern European countries have adopted pro-natalist population policies--including tax benefits to families with children, lengthy maternity leaves, workplace day care facilities, and preference in housing allocation to young couples--to reverse declining fertility rates, but it is unclear whether the impact of such measures will be permanent.