Abstract
The low-carbon transition of the power system is essential for China to achieve peak carbon and carbon neutrality. However, China could suffer power shortages due to radical policies in some extreme cases. The gap between power demand and supply from March 2021 to November 2021 ranged between 5.2 billion kW·h and 24.6 billion kW·h. The main reason for the power shortage was over-reliance on renewable energy and insufficient coal power supply for the power system. The low-carbon transformation path of the electric system needs to be explored with more flexibility for power security. This study applied a modified LEAP model and carried out a forecast analysis of thermal power generation and installed capacity in 2025 and 2030 under normal and extreme weather scenarios. The results suggested that: the installed capacity of thermal power will need to account for about 44.6–46.1% of power generation in 2025 and 37.4–39.3% in 2030, with the assumption of power shortages caused by the instability and uncertainty of renewable power. In the future, China needs to pursue the development of diversified energy sources and enhance the power supply security capability while strengthening the development and utilization of renewable energy.
Highlights
In terms of the electricity sector, the needs are to improve energy efficiency and promote the development of renewable energy, such as solar power, wind power, hydropower, nuclear power, and others, which dominate the low-carbon transformation in many countries [6–8]
We explored the optimum installed capacity of thermal power, wind power, solar power, hydropower, and nuclear power, with a view to optimizing policies related to the low-carbon transformation of the electric system to avoid power shortage
The thermal power generation in 2025 and 2030 under the usual scenario predicted in this study is basically consistent with others’ Energies 2022, 15, x FOR PEER REVIEWpredictions [58,59]
Summary
In September 2021, more than ten provinces in China suspended the operation of industries and restricted household electricity consumption, which seriously affected residents’ daily lives and increased the sensitivity of the whole of society [1] This phenomenon can be summarized as having resulted from imbalance between power supply and power demand due to some aggressive low-carbon policies. At the 75th session of the UN General Assembly, Chinese President Xi stated that China will seize the opportunity to formulate an action plan to achieve peak carbon dioxide emissions before 2030 and to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060 [3] To achieve this goal, energy transition from coal to non-fossil energy in all industries has been accelerated [4], especially in the power sector due to its significant contribution to carbon emissions [3,5]. Japan is paying increasing attention to development of nuclear power and hydrogen energy [12]
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