Low-carbon generation expansion planning considering uncertainty of renewable energy at multi-time scales

Abstract

With the development of carbon electricity, achieving a low-carbon economy has become a prevailing and inevitable trend. Improving low-carbon expansion generation planning is critical for carbon emission mitigation and a low- carbon economy. In this paper, a two-layer low-carbon expansion generation planning approach considering the uncertainty of renewable energy at multiple time scales is proposed. First, renewable energy sequences considering the uncertainty in multiple time scales are generated based on the Copula function and the probability distribution of renewable energy. Second, a two-layer generation planning model considering carbon trading and carbon capture technology is established. Specifically, the upper layer model optimizes the investment decision considering the uncertainty at a monthly scale, and the lower layer one optimizes the scheduling considering the peak shaving at an hourly scale and the flexibility at a 15-minute scale. Finally, the results of different influence factors on low-carbon generation expansion planning are compared in a provincial power grid, which demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed model.