Low carbon development patterns of land use under complex terrain conditions: The case of Chongqing in China

Abstract

Land exhibits distinct carbon source/sink states under varying utilization conditions. Under the climate change environment, developing low-carbon land use optimization strategies has become an urgent problem. Thus, this study examines the characteristics of land use carbon emissions (LUCE) resulting from land use and land cover change (LUCC) in Chongqing under five shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). The results show: (1) From 2000 to 2020, the LUCE in Chongqing increased significantly and then decreased slightly. The improvement of energy technology can limit carbon emissions from expanding construction. (2) In 2030, Chongqing will have the highest LUCE in SSP5 scenario, followed by SSP4 scenario, and the lowest in SSP2 scenario. However, some districts and counties in Chongqing City have the opposite situation to the whole research area. (3) In the study area, LUCE exhibits a significant positive spatial correlation with Moran's indices of 0.48, 0.27, and 0.39 in 2000, 2010, and 2020, respectively. Carbon emissions in Chongqing primarily concentrate in the main urban areas, with high-emission areas spreading outward from specific centers in the districts and counties. In 2030, spatial LUCE aggregation will decrease significantly, especially in the SSP3 scenario, with a Moran's index of 0.25. When adjusting the land use structure, policymakers need to implement differentiated land use management strategies, considering the characteristics of LUCE and their development directions. This study confirms that socioeconomic development has a direct impact on LUCE. The results of this study provide a reference for the government’s land-use assessment, achieving low-carbon development goals, and identifying regional development patterns.