Looking into the Future Strategic Foresight in National and EU Institutions

Abstract

Public decision-makers have always tried to anticipate future events to handle efficiently new regulatory challenges. In recent years, however, public administrations have engaged more structurally and systematically with strategic foresight. The scale, haste and complexity of issues to be regulated, on the one hand, and the necessity for public sector institutions to adopt inclusive, innovative and adaptive methods in the exercise of regulatory powers, on the other, have contributed to the growing relevance of horizon-scanning and future-thinking into the public sector. This paper sets out by analysing how strategic thinking and oversight have expanded at the public sector level. It firstly provides an overview of European governments. The approaches of European policy-makers vary both in terms of substance and administrative structures dedicated to foresight. Depending on the case, they may opt for centralised or decentralised foresight bodies or they can rely more or less frequently on external expertise. The same applies to non-EU countries’ approaches to future-thinking, to which this briefing dedicates a cursory analysis. Supranational regulators, and specifically the European Union, make no exception in this regard. Foresight activities at the Union level are carried out through dedicated structures and developed through collaboration with strategic policy advice mechanisms. The new European Commission has committed to strengthen strategic foresight in EU policy-making in order to help EU institutions to better design laws, as well as developing future-oriented policies. The plan includes the set-up of a EU Network of Strategic Foresight, bringing together the best of EU institutions and the member states, as well as the preparation of a yearly Foresight Report on the most relevant emerging trends. The analysis of strategic foresight by national and Union institutions shows that foresight activities and civic engagement are dependent on each other. Supported by technology, policy-makers can crowdsource the 'civic surplus' (ideas and skills) held by individuals and communities, thus providing smarter solutions to future regulatory challenges. The conclusive remarks of the briefing stress this aspect, by pointing at the relevance of collective intelligence in foresight studies.