A holistic approach to strategic foresight: A foresight support system for the German Federal Armed Forces

Abstract

Companies increasingly face a dynamic environment, where unexpected change is the norm rather than the exception. Strategic foresight uses a variety of methods to assess possible future events. Combining different foresight methods and integrating expert opinions transform the strategic foresight process into a powerful but major undertaking. IT systems can assist with the growing complexity of strategic foresight methods. Currently, specialized IT systems can support various strategic foresight methods and foresight activities, but these are generally focused on isolated applications rather than providing a holistic solution.This article contributes to the field of foresight support systems by documenting and demonstrating the development and implementation of a foresight support system tailored for the German Federal Armed Forces. We draw on a literature-based design for foresight support systems and demonstrate how our system addresses issues raised in the literature. Our system provides a holistic approach to strategic foresight incorporating the rules of order in foresight processes, foresight method combinations, mechanisms for the reuse of foresight activity results, and collaborative decision-making.