Long-term trend analysis of climate variables for arid and semi-arid regions of an Indian State Rajasthan

Abstract

Variations of rainfall as well as temperature for long term are one of the elements in variability of climate. In this paper, trend detection has been studied for the period of rainfall data from year 1871 to 2016 and temperature data from 1901 to 2002 for the entire state. To detect the existing trend, Mann-Kendall test is performed and to detect the magnitude of trend, Sens slope estimator tests were performed. Trend analysis of rainfall over 146 years shows increasing trend in pre monsoon, southwest monsoon and annual precipitation in west Rajasthan while the result shows increasing trend in pre monsoon, post monsoon and annual rainfall in the east Rajasthan. Trend analysis of temperature over 102 years shows increasing trend in annual temperature in both regions. It can be concluded that there are significant changes in the trend of rainfall and temperature of the region. This study would be useful to hydrologists, water resource engineers, researchers and consultants dealing with the impact of climate change for sustainable development and water resource planning.