Long-term Scenarios based on AIM Model

Abstract

In order to respond to climate change, it is essential to describe possible future trajectories of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in terms of both nonintervention and intervention strategies. This chapter analyzes long-term GHG emissions scenarios according to alternative development paths for the world and major regions, based on the nonintervention emissions scenarios quantified by the Asian-Pacific Integrated Model (AIM). AIM has been revised and applied to the quantification of story lines for scenarios of socioeconomic development, and GHG emissions from energy use, land use changes, and industrial production processes are simulated. A wide range of mitigation policies have been adopted as responses to climate change. The results show that to achieve stabilization at a different GHG concentration level, it is essential to have a policy package to reach the target concentration level, rather than a single policy. Energy efficiency improvements and renewable energy introduction make a key contribution to the reduction of GHG emissions as a result of such a policy package. The mitigation costs could be small without a significant reduction in economic growth. The developing world could substantially reduce GHG emissions compared with nonintervention scenarios with sufficient knowledge transfer from the developed countries.