Long-Term GHG Emission Scenarios for Asia-Pacific and the World

Abstract

Because the Asia-Pacific region has half of the world population and is experiencing very rapid economic growth, it is becoming more important in the global response to the climate change issue. However, the best way to respond to the issue depends largely on the development patterns of this region, and this region has a wide range of development path options. This article analyzes long-term greenhouse gas (GHG) emission scenarios depending on alternative development paths in the developing countries of this region (referred to hereafter as “the Developing Asia-Pacific”), as well as in the world. The Asian-Pacific Integrated Model, or AIM, is revised and applied to the quantification of narrative storylines into scenarios of socioeconomic development, and GHG emissions from energy use, land use change, and industrial production processes are simulated. The results show that GHG emissions from both the Developing Asia-Pacific and the world as a whole would rapidly increase in the first half of the next century, while the emission scenarios would diverge significantly in the latter half. The range of the Developing Asia-Pacific scenarios are wider than those of other regions, and include the possibilities of both keeping emissions low with high economic growth and also causing a rapid increase of emissions with low economic growth. The Developing Asia-Pacific, as well as the rest of the world, have to consider more sophisticated policies to reduce GHGs in the first half of next century, and also must consider a number of robust policies to prepare for the wide range of future development paths.