Long-term vegetation trends and driving factors of NDVI change on the slopes of Mount Kilimanjaro

Abstract

ABSTRACT This study is the first to examine vegetation change on Kilimanjaro from 2000 to 2022, using the Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) at a spatial resolution of 250 m via the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS). There is a long-term increase in vegetation on an annual basis, but with decreases in the long/short rains at low/high elevations. Temperature significantly influences NDVI across all elevations and seasons. Precipitation effects are more variable and often delayed, especially in the forest zone. The study explores how El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events affect NDVI differently at contrasting elevations, indicating the need for further elevation-specific remote sensing research and field data.