Abstract
To understand and predict the temporal variability of Asian summer monsoon, we should investigate the water and energy cycle in the Tibetan Plateau. Recently, air temperature observed at the meteorological station is rising because of global warming. Its warming trend is larger than that in the Northern Hemisphere. The widespread and rapid permafrost degradation is attributed to global warming. The impact of global warming affects the water and energy cycle in the Tibetan Plateau through the permafrost degradation. However, without surface hydrological observation, we can not examine the effect of permafrost degradation on the water cycle in the plateau regions. Therefore, we should investigate the trend in the thawing process by using the long term simulation results.The objectives in this paper are to evaluate the performance of 1D permafrost model to simulate the thawing process in the frozen ground, to investigate the effect of soil moisture, air temperature and rainfall on the thawing process and to examine the tends in the thawing process and soil moisture in spring.At first, the model results are good agreement with the observed data. Secondary, the model simulation indicates that the trend in the thawing process is upward, on the other hands, the trend in the soil moisture in spring is not clear.
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