Late spring soil moisture variation over the Tibetan Plateau and its influences on the plateau summer monsoon

Abstract

Based on the European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ERA‐Interim reanalysis data from 1979 to 2016, an index for Tibetan Plateau (TP) soil moisture (ITPSM), which could represent inter‐annual variation in spring soil moisture, is defined after removing the linear trend in soil moisture. The late spring soil moisture variation over the TP and its influences on the plateau summer monsoon are analysed. The results show that the TP soil moisture variation is non‐uniform, and spring soil moisture over the northeastern TP shows an increasing trend, while the western TP (especially the peripheral area) renders a significantly decreasing trend. When the ITPSM shows positive (negative) anomalies (i.e., spring soil moisture over the northeastern TP is higher (lower), soil moisture over the western TP is lower (higher) than normal), the plateau summer monsoon may be stronger (weaker). Anomalous variations in spring TP soil moisture can eventually affect the plateau summer monsoon by changing atmospheric circulation, diabatic heating, and water vapour transportation. It is found that when the ITPSM exhibits positive anomalies, diabatic heating over the centre and eastern TP is remarkably enhanced, and warm and humid moisture from the Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea and cold air from high latitudes merge over the central and eastern TP; coupled with lower‐level convergence and upper‐level divergence, all these contribute to an increase in plateau summer monsoonal precipitation. When the ITPSM shows negative anomalies, diabatic heating over the centre and eastern TP is weakened, the anomalous cyclone to the south of the TP hinders warm and humid air flows transportation to the TP, and the anomalous anticyclone to the southeast of Lake Baikal weakens cold air to the south; coupled with weakened convergence and upwards motion, these factors all lead to a decrease in plateau summer monsoonal precipitation.